Tuesday, May 8, 2018

Bonds

"More aggressive investors might keep a portion of their money in bonds to provide them with 'dry powder' that they can use when the stock market goes on sale."

Tony Robbins "Unshakeable" pg130

Firstly, what does dry powder mean?
According to Investopedia, "dry powder is a slang term referring to marketable securities that are highly liquid and considered cash-like. Dry powder can also refer to cash reserves kept on hand by a company, venture capital firm or person to cover future obligations, purchase assets or make acquisitions. Securities considered to be dry powder could be Treasuries, or other fixed income investments, and can be liquidated on short notice, in order to provide emergency funding or allow an investor to purchase assets."
In short, it refers to assets with high liquidity.

Why bonds instead of cash?
Bonds have cash-like liquidity. They earn higher interest rate than cash and can be converted to cash almost immediately.

The bond market is bigger than equity market. Bonds are for accredited investors, and they trade in large amounts. Bond trading is like stock trading, it is subject to supply and demand. You can sell before maturity in the market or hold it until maturity. In Singapore, bonds trade in min $250k, interest is normally paid semi-annually.

Old Wall Street Strategies in China, HK Time Deposits, Australian Corporate Tax

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-17/old-wall-street-strategies-are-now-hugely-profitable-in-china

Old Wall Street strategies: picking stocks with fundamentals (attractive yields, high dividends).
Trend-following strategies: picking stocks with momentum and relative strength.

Old Wall Street strategies are still widely used. Trend-following stocks may not have strong fundamentals.

Market intervention by government serves various purposes, most common of which is to prevent prices from running too fast too soon. This is like the property measures in Singapore.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-01/banks-scrambling-for-hong-kong-deposits-push-rates-as-high-as-3

Time deposits = fixed deposits. They are cash equivalent. If cash is tied down as deposits, there will be less cash for the equity market which will then be affected. HK banks are now trying to get funding by raising time deposit interest rates to maintain liquidity of the currency, hence defending the dollar peg, i.e. they need more cash to buy US$.
Current peg is US$1=HK$7.80, this is the rate that HK needs to defend. The peg will change when there is a fundamental policy shift by HK. It will happen when the greenback is no longer accepted as the leading world currency.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-06/australia-needs-company-tax-cut-to-compete-treasurer-says

Reducing corporate tax increases profit. Growth increases as more dividends can be declared. With higher profits, companies can also expand their business and employ more people.